Long-running rumours of ructions within the Nigerian Islamist group were confirmed when Islamic State—to which the group has pledged allegiance—named Abu Musab al-Barnawi as Boko Haram’s new leader this month.
Now, the government faces a changing conflict. Humanitarian agencies have flooded the north-east as the Islamists retreat; diplomats fret that Mr al-Barnawi plans headline-grabbing attacks on foreign workers. Meanwhile Abubakar Shekau, his deposed predecessor, has refused to cede control, promising a wave of attacks throughout the world. This is fighting talk: in reality the jihadists are on the back foot. Many of those loyal to Mr Shekau are surrounded by armed forces in the scrubby Sambisa forest, and Mr al-Barnawi’s group has expended energy in attacks around Lake Chad. Both sides need food, ammunition and fighters; fellow jihadists in the Middle East can do little to help. Will the two groups focus on fighting each other, or trying to outdo each other with new attacks?
No comments:
Post a Comment